tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 58 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DALFlights at DAL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 10:00 AM CDT · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 59%

    What changed: 48% → 59% since the 10:00 AM CDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.