tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 7:00 AM CDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday at 57%

    What changed: 50% → 57% since the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 3:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 55%

    What changed: 57% → 55% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.