Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Love Field departures noon–3 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 2:00 AM CDT · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 38%
What changed: 56% → 38% since the 2:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 3:00 AM CDT · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 38% → 28%; calm-weather level 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DAL departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 19, 6:00 AM CDT · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-19 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?