Updated model now expects about 17 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Sunday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 86 cancellations among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 86 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~86.1 over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 17 among O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 86 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.8 over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?