tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation ORD departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 15 cancellations among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 226 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.3 over 226 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 89 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 15 → 89 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 89 of the 226 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~89.0 over 226 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 89 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~21.2 over 227 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.