tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 44%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 226 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 226 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 68%

    What changed: 42% → 68% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 226 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Sunday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 226 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 44%

    What changed: 68% → 44% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 227 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 227 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.