tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant New Delay LAS departures

Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Sunday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 100 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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