tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 72 minLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Observed Significant Resolved Delay DCA arrivals

National arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved at 6:35 PM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    National arrivals running late: 61% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 23 arrivals that landed between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EDT, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window4:17 PM–5:17 PM EDT
    Sample23 flights, 14 late (61%)
    Comparison28% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay16.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-21 21:17 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Recovery Observed

    National arrivals back near normal: 21% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 61% at worst → 21% now

    Of 24 arrivals that landed between 5:35 PM and 6:35 PM EDT, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window5:35 PM–6:35 PM EDT
    Sample24 flights, 5 late (21%)
    Comparison28% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay-5.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-21 22:35 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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