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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 35%, near normal

Current state: Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
Started: Wed Oct 21, 4:00 PM PDT
Latest activity: Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Wed Oct 21, 4:57 PM PDT

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Thursday

Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	43% over 115 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Wed Oct 21, 4:00 PM PDT · 19.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3
Source event time	Wed Oct 21, 4:00 PM PDT
Ingested	Wed Oct 21, 4:57 PM PDT
Published here	Wed Oct 21, 4:57 PM PDT (2026-10-21 23:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Thu Oct 22, 2:56 AM PDT

Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday at 55%

What changed: 43% → 55% since the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	55% over 114 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Thu Oct 22, 2:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Thu Oct 22, 2:00 AM PDT
Ingested	Thu Oct 22, 2:56 AM PDT
Published here	Thu Oct 22, 2:56 AM PDT (2026-10-22 09:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Thu Oct 22, 6:56 AM PDT

Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday at 41%

What changed: 55% → 41% since the 2:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	LAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	41% over 114 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Thu Oct 22, 5:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Thu Oct 22, 5:00 AM PDT
Ingested	Thu Oct 22, 6:56 AM PDT
Published here	Thu Oct 22, 6:56 AM PDT (2026-10-22 13:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Resolution Forecast Thu Oct 22, 7:27 AM PDT