tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 88 minLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 82%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 6:00 PM PDT · 22.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 70%

    What changed: 52% → 70% since the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Thursday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 AM PDT · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 82%

    What changed: 70% → 82% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Thursday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)82% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.