tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 76%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 10:00 AM PDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 61%

    What changed: 50% → 61% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%

    What changed: 61% → 55% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 65%

    What changed: 55% → 65% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 76%

    What changed: 65% → 76% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 76%

    What changed: 76% → 76% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 6:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 76%

    What changed: 76% → 76% since the 6:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM PDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.