tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Friday to 35%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:27 PM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Las Vegas departures midnight–3 AM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM PDT · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk midnight–3 AM Friday to 35%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 35%; calm-weather level 28%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures midnight–3 AM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)35% over 20 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM PDT · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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