tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 114 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 9:00 AM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 58%

    What changed: 50% → 58% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 114 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 10:00 AM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 12:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.