tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View HOUFlights at HOU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Hobby departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 32 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 56%

    What changed: 48% → 56% since the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 32 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 3:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.