Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 12:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 59%
What changed: 48% → 59% since the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 57%
What changed: 59% → 57% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 3:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 61%
What changed: 57% → 61% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 26 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 5:00 PM CDT · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.