Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Hobby departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
What changed: 49% → 58% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 55%
What changed: 58% → 55% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
What changed: 55% → 58% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target HOU departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 22, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.