tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 79%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 62%

    What changed: 50% → 62% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM CDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 60%

    What changed: 62% → 60% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 61%

    What changed: 60% → 61% since the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 6:00 PM CDT · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 79%

    What changed: 61% → 79% since the 6:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.