tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 6 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 59 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 69%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 69%

    What changed: 60% → 69% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.