Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 229 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (229 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:07 AM and 10:07 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 14% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
▼ 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:19 PM and 10:19 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:56 PM and 9:56 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 18 departures that took off between 10:14 PM and 11:14 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
7 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 8:34 PM and 9:34 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BNA
▲ 75% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 54% → 66% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 55% → 67% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.