Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (223 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 20 departures that took off between 10:02 PM and 11:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of the 22 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 9:59 PM and 11:29 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▼ 78% → 78% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:09 PM and 9:09 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:13 PM and 7:13 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:03 PM and 9:03 PM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 10:46 PM and 11:46 PM EST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 22 departures that took off between 7:50 PM and 8:50 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 19 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 2:56 PM and 4:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 9:30 PM and 10:30 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 20 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of the 31 departures scheduled from BWI (BWI) between 5:00 PM and 6:30 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 23. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BWI is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 26 departures that took off between 10:41 AM and 11:41 AM EST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from BWI 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 23% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 23 departures that took off between 5:49 PM and 6:49 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. BWI typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:16 PM and 6:16 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at BWI arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View BWI
▼ 82% → 79% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 80% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from BWI 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from BWI 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 58% → 66% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from BWI noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.