Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
What changed: 55% → 69% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 47% → 60% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 48% → 55% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:56 AM and 7:56 AM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:56 AM–7:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 44% → 68% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 55% → 60% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 49% → 84% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:48 PM and 12:48 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:48 PM–12:48 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 71%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 departures that took off between 4:14 PM and 5:14 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Indianapolis 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 departures that took off between 6:59 AM and 7:59 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Indianapolis typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:59 AM–7:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:04 PM and 12:04 AM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Indianapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:04 PM–12:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View IND
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Indianapolis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.