Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 AM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 9:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:15 PM and 9:15 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
▼ about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecastLoading earlier updates…
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 41 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%
▲ 62% → 85% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
FAA no longer lists a ground stop at Midway
ground stop no longer listedLoading earlier updates…
The ground stop for flights to Midway (MDW) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:30 PM CST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 2:52 PM CST.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
1 update · Source: FAA ATCSCC advisory ↗
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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Midway (MDW), citing “equipment outage”. Flights to MDW are held at their departure airports until 3:30 PM CST. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM CST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Midway: 8 of 28 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 8 of 28Of the 29 departures scheduled from Midway (MDW) between 12:35 PM and 2:05 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MDW is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 44%, near normal
54% → 44%; calm-weather level 37%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%
▼ 57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 31%, near normal
42% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Updated model puts Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 57%
▲ 47% → 57% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Midway departure delays worsen: 92% late in the last hour
▲ late share 50% → 92%Loading earlier updates…
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Older items Every published update, newest first. Times are EST.
- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?