Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 229 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 229 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data <1 min
FAA NAS status is stale (229 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (229 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▼ 57% → 40% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 55% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 57%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:41 PM and 9:41 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 18 departures that took off between 1:09 PM and 2:09 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Midway 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 departures that took off between 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM CST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 26 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 51% → 64% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 1:23 PM and 2:23 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 18 departures that took off between 9:09 PM and 10:09 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
5 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:13 PM and 9:13 PM CST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Midway arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 28 departures that took off between 10:03 AM and 11:03 AM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
Of 17 departures that took off between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Midway typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View MDW
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?