Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 79% → 50%
Of 14 departures that took off between 7:14 PM and 8:14 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:14 PM–8:14 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 33%
What changed: late share 50% → 60%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:24 PM and 6:24 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at New Orleans arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:24 PM–6:24 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 departures that took off between 7:28 PM and 8:28 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:28 PM–8:28 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 33%
Of 17 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:05 PM–7:05 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 65%Typical 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:47 AM and 11:47 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:47 AM–11:47 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 66% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 20 departures scheduled from New Orleans (MSY) between 5:49 PM and 7:19 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MSY is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 5:49 PM–7:19 PM CSTTight turns 8 of 12Share 67%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at New Orleans arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 22%
What changed: 52% → 62% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 34%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 53%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 36%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for New Orleans (MSY) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 5:53 AM CST. The latest, at 6:46 AM CST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 13 kt.
Observed 6:46 AM CST
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 77% → 38%
Of 13 departures that took off between 5:40 PM and 6:40 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:40 PM–6:40 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 38%Typical 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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