Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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New Orleans departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 79% → 50%Loading earlier updates…
Of 14 departures that took off between 7:14 PM and 8:14 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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New Orleans arrival delays worsen: 60% late in the last hour
▲ late share 50% → 60%Loading earlier updates…
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:24 PM and 6:24 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at New Orleans arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Thursday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 7:28 PM and 8:28 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 17 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:47 AM and 11:47 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 73%
▲ 66% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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New Orleans: 8 of 12 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 8 of 12Of the 20 departures scheduled from New Orleans (MSY) between 5:49 PM and 7:19 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MSY is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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New Orleans arrivals running late: 57% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
57% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at New Orleans arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%
▲ 52% → 62% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 34%, near normal
44% → 34%; calm-weather level 28%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 31%, near normal
41% → 31%; calm-weather level 22%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 31%, near normal
42% → 31%; calm-weather level 23%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Monday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers New Orleans departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 36%, near normal
43% → 36%; calm-weather level 28%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Monday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at New Orleans
low cloud or visibility → no longer reportedLoading earlier updates…
No official weather observation (METAR) for New Orleans (MSY) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 5:53 AM CST. The latest, at 6:46 AM CST, reports ceiling 1000 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 13 kt.
2 updates · Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗
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Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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New Orleans departure delays ease: 38% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 77% → 38%Loading earlier updates…
Of 13 departures that took off between 5:40 PM and 6:40 PM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. New Orleans typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
3 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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- Observed
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- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?