tailodds FORECAST

Wire

Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

News desk major developments and corrections Airport operations restrictions, deterioration, recovery
Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports, including tight aircraft turns there. Your own flight’s inbound aircraft is on its flight page.

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Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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Forecast horizon
h

A horizon shows forecasts only: hours from the forecast to the start of the period it’s about.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

Clear
Type: Cancellation ×Airport: PHL × Clear filters
Cards Terminal
Latest per event All updates
EST, Nov 13 48 min ago
Forecast Major New Cancellation PHL departures

Model expects about 7 cancellations among Philadelphia departures noon–3 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHL
EST, Nov 13 48 min ago
Forecast Major New Cancellation PHL departures

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Philadelphia departures 9 AM–noon Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHL
EST, Nov 12 7 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation PHL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Philadelphia departures 6–9 AM Friday

What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 80 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHL

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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Matches: Type: Cancellation · Airport: PHL. Alerts arrive as in-app notifications here; email isn’t switched on for this site.

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