tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports, including tight aircraft turns there. Your own flight’s inbound aircraft is on its flight page.

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Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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Forecast horizon
h

A horizon shows forecasts only: hours from the forecast to the start of the period it’s about.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

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Type: Cancellation ×Airport: SEA × Clear filters
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Latest per event All updates
PST, Nov 14 14 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation SEA departures

Updated model now expects about 4 among Seattle departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 93 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA
PST, Nov 14 14 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation SEA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 119 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View SEA
PST, Nov 14 14 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation SEA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Seattle departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View SEA
PST, Nov 13 8 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation SEA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

What changed: about 23 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View SEA
PST, Nov 13 12 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation SEA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

What changed: about 9 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SEA
PST, Nov 13 15 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation SEA departures

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Seattle departures 3–6 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SEA

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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