Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
43% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 43% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
43% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 8:06 PM and 9:06 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Sacramento departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday
68% riskTailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 12:56 PM and 1:56 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday to 32%, near normal
34% → 32%; calm-weather level 25%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 54% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
54% lateOf 13 arrivals that landed between 9:43 PM and 10:43 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 52%
▼ 58% → 52% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 9:35 AM and 10:35 AM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model lowers Sacramento departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 32%, near normal
42% → 32%; calm-weather level 26%Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Monday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 47% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
47% lateOf 15 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Sacramento 6–9 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 2:22 PM and 3:22 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Sacramento arrivals running late: 40% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
40% lateOf 15 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Sacramento arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 12 departures that took off between 6:36 PM and 7:36 PM PDT, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Sacramento typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 18 departures scheduled from Sacramento 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?