Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Wire
Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked
FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
News desk major developments and corrections
Airport operations restrictions, deterioration, recovery
Airline analyst not yet available
Passenger events at your flight's airports
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Filters (2)
Your alerts
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour
late share 62% at worst → 19% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Loading earlier updates…
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Orange County departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 87% → 58%Loading earlier updates…
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%
▼ 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Loading earlier updates…
Of 15 departures that took off between 2:39 PM and 3:39 PM PDT, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%
▲ 49% → 63% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%
▲ 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 8:02 PM and 9:02 PM PDT, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Open event ›
View SNA
Older items Every published update, newest first. Times are EST.
- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?