Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:40 PM and 7:40 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:17 PM and 2:17 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:14 PM and 1:14 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA’s airport status lists a closure at Orange County (SNA) until 6:15 AM PST.
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Orange County arrivals back near normal: 19% late in the last hour
late share 62% at worst → 19% nowLoading earlier updates…
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Of 15 departures that took off between 8:19 PM and 9:19 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County
low cloud or visibility → no longer reportedLoading earlier updates…
No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 4:06 AM PST. The latest, at 4:13 AM PST, reports light rain; mist, ceiling 1500 ft, visibility 6 mi, wind 4 kt.
2 updates · Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗
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FAA no longer lists a airport closure at Orange County
airport closure no longer listedLoading earlier updates…
The airport closure at Orange County (SNA) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 12:33 PM PDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 11:31 PM PDT.
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Orange County: 8 of 12 departures in the next 90 min have their aircraft due in with under 35 min to turn
Tight turns 8 of 12Of the 15 departures scheduled from Orange County (SNA) between 7:40 PM and 9:10 PM PDT, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 12. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedules
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Official observation no longer reports thunderstorm at Orange County
thunderstorm in the vicinity → no longer reportedLoading earlier updates…
No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports a thunderstorm; it was last reported at 7:53 PM PDT. The latest, at 8:07 PM PDT, reports light rain, ceiling 7500 ft, visibility 8 mi, wind 3 kt.
2 updates · Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗
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Orange County departure delays ease: 58% late in the last hour, still above normal
▼ late share 87% → 58%Loading earlier updates…
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 PM and 7:14 PM PDT, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Orange County typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Orange County arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour
50% lateOf 14 arrivals that landed between 6:04 PM and 7:04 PM PDT, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Orange County arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
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Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%
▼ 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%
▲ 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Official observation no longer reports low cloud or visibility at Orange County
low cloud or visibility → no longer reportedLoading earlier updates…
No official weather observation (METAR) for Orange County (SNA) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 9:22 PM PDT. The latest, at 9:53 PM PDT, reports ceiling 3300 ft, visibility 10 mi or more, wind 3 kt.
2 updates · Source: Official weather observation (METAR), NOAA Aviation Weather Center ↗
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- Confirmed
- An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
- Observed
- We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
- Forecast
- Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?