Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1413 at 11:37, 40%.

Safest bet today AA 1413 AUS 11:37 → DFW 12:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3722 AUS 18:41 → DFW 19:56 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1413 American Flight history →	AUS 11:37	DFW 12:50	40%	12%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 13:56	DFW 15:10	42%	14%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 15:44	DFW 16:58	44%	19%	1.0%	72%worse than usual
AA 615 American Flight history →	AUS 11:41	DFW 13:02	47%	11%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 16:55	DFW 18:11	48%	18%	0.9%	67%worse than usual
AA 1070 American	AUS 12:51	DFW 14:10	48%	18%	1.0%	no record
AA 2198 American Flight history →	AUS 15:09	DFW 16:25	49%	19%	1.0%	65%worse than usual
AA 1852 American	AUS 14:15	DFW 15:29	50%	19%	0.8%	no record
AA 1397 American Flight history →	AUS 14:44	DFW 16:03	50%	19%	0.8%	66%worse than usual
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AUS 19:48	DFW 21:20	50%	34%	2.4%	60%worse than usual
MQ 3348 Envoy	AUS 19:57	DFW 21:21	51%	20%	1.3%	no record
AA 1402 American Flight history →	AUS 12:40	DFW 13:54	52%	19%	1.1%	37%
AA 1146 American	AUS 17:35	DFW 18:52	54%	19%	0.7%	no record
AA 2103 American	AUS 16:39	DFW 18:00	55%	19%	0.7%	no record
AA 3402 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:54	DFW 20:11	55%	23%	1.3%	62%worse than usual
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:50	DFW 19:15	56%	25%	0.9%	58%worse than usual
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:41	DFW 19:56	56%	22%	1.3%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON