Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4773 at 13:28, 33%.

Safest bet today AA 4773 LGA 13:28 → DCA 15:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 23 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:28	DCA 15:00	33%	9%	0.6%	76%
YX 5779 Republic	JFK 16:02	IAD 17:33	35%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	DCA 14:40	36%	9%	0.5%	43%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	36%	20%	0.6%	61%
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:20	DCA 16:52	37%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 3688 United flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:51	IAD 16:35	38%	7%	0.8%	63%
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:41	DCA 23:23	39%	18%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	40%	20%	0.7%	50%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	42%	20%	1.3%	68%
YX 4463 Republic	JFK 21:56	DCA 23:29	43%	18%	1.2%	no record
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	45%	23%	0.7%	62%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:53	DCA 16:23	45%	15%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
DL 1825 Delta Flight history →	LGA 21:20	DCA 22:58	45%	25%	0.8%	47%
UA 2301 United	EWR 15:05	IAD 16:40	46%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:13	DCA 18:45	46%	19%	0.6%	74%worse than usual
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	46%	15%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
YX 5827 Republic	LGA 21:25	DCA 22:56	46%	18%	1.0%	no record
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:51	DCA 21:22	48%	19%	1.2%	91%worse than usual
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:50	DCA 21:26	49%	22%	1.3%	64%worse than usual
UA 1992 United Flight history →	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:32	51%	10%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	60%	18%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	60%	38%	1.1%	53%worse than usual
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:00	DCA 14:23	29%	6%	13.9%	71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:28	IAD 20:55	31%	22%	14.7%	69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:00	DCA 15:23	40%	24%	4.3%	60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:10	DCA 19:48	43%	22%	9.6%	57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:20	DCA 21:53	55%	25%	9.5%	45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 15:30	DCA 16:57	58%	23%	4.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON