tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 46 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4551 at 06:30, 6%.

Safest bet that day AA 4551 DCA 06:30 → JFK 07:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 5752 DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time
Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 JFK 07:57 6% 2% 1.2% 94%
DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:06 JFK 07:29 6% 2% 1.2% 93%
YX 5843 Republic DCA 06:16 LGA 07:34 9% 3% 1.3% no record
UA 1998 United IAD 06:43 EWR 08:09 11% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 4393 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:59 LGA 08:20 11% 2% 1.3% 88%
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:52 LGA 08:10 12% 2% 1.3% 90%
UA 2147 United Flight history → IAD 06:33 EWR 07:52 13% 3% 0.8% 97%
DL 1172 Delta Flight history → DCA 06:20 LGA 07:30 13% 3% 0.9% 87%
UA 2396 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 EWR 09:51 13% 3% 0.8% 89%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:20 JFK 07:28 15% 4% 0.9% 91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:06 JFK 12:25 16% 4% 0.8% 94%
DL 5624 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:00 JFK 12:17 18% 4% 0.9% 74%
AA 4781 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:54 JFK 16:29 19% 6% 0.9% 62%
YX 5809 Republic IAD 12:18 JFK 13:38 20% 5% 0.7% no record
UA 1997 United Flight history → IAD 22:29 EWR 23:59 22% 6% 0.7% 78%
AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 09:59 LGA 11:25 22% 4% 1.0% 85%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:15 LGA 09:33 23% 3% 1.0% 81%
DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 12:29 JFK 13:55 24% 5% 0.7% 42%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:00 JFK 18:39 25% 7% 1.2% 67%
UA 3682 United flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 22:05 LGA 23:30 26% 8% 0.8% 58%
AA 4474 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:58 JFK 21:30 26% 8% 1.2% 50%
UA 3698 United flown by Republic Flight history → IAD 12:40 LGA 14:10 28% 9% 0.7% 68%
UA 1498 United Flight history → IAD 12:35 EWR 14:01 30% 10% 0.7% 69%
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:30 LGA 23:44 31% 9% 1.6% 70%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:00 LGA 12:09 35% 5% 1.0% 75%worse than usual
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:59 LGA 16:33 44% 10% 1.2% 64%
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:26 LGA 18:57 46% 14% 1.6% 55%
UA 1831 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 EWR 19:10 46% 13% 0.8% 59%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:59 LGA 15:31 46% 10% 1.2% 62%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:30 LGA 14:53 46% 10% 1.2% 67%worse than usual
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:40 LGA 18:59 47% 14% 1.6% 51%
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:19 LGA 19:49 48% 13% 1.6% 51%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 20:40 LGA 21:59 50% 16% 1.6% 54%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:40 LGA 21:04 51% 16% 1.6% 48%
UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 06:00 EWR 07:19 7% 4% 2.2% 93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 10:07 EWR 11:29 13% 12% 5.6% 87%
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 11:00 EWR 12:22 14% 11% 6.7% 86%
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 08:30 EWR 09:52 16% 5% 2.2% 84%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 13:00 EWR 14:22 33% 18% 4.6% 67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IAD 19:14 JFK 21:00 36% 22% 12.7% 64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 15:10 EWR 16:30 36% 21% 8.3% 64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 17:55 EWR 19:28 43% 24% 11.4% 57%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 16:30 EWR 18:03 44% 23% 5.4% 56%
UA 4174 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 20:25 EWR 21:58 47% 28% 11.8% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON