tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 7:00 AM CDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 13:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 60%

    What changed: 50% → 60% since the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 75%

    What changed: 60% → 75% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.