tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 60 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 7:00 AM PDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 60%

    What changed: 54% → 60% since the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 60 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 8:00 AM PDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 61%

    What changed: 60% → 61% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 60 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 9:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

    What changed: 61% → 71% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 60 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 60 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.