tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 4:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 4:00 AM PDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 56%

    What changed: 45% → 56% since the 4:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 7:00 AM PDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 56% → 57% since the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 8:00 AM PDT · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

    What changed: 57% → 61% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 9:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 71%

    What changed: 61% → 71% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.