tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 AM PDT · 10.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 55%

    What changed: 47% → 55% since the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 7:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 63%

    What changed: 55% → 63% since the 7:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 9:00 AM PDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 71%

    What changed: 63% → 71% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.