Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 52%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 10:00 AM PDT · 10.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 53%
What changed: 58% → 53% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 59%
What changed: 53% → 59% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 52%
What changed: 59% → 52% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 37 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 5:00 PM PDT · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-24 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.