tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 9:27 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 103 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.0 over 103 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 25, 7:00 PM EDT · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-25 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 3 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday

    What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 99 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.2 over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Monday to about 2

    What changed: about 3 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.2 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 8:00 AM EDT · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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