tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 27%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 3:00 AM EDT · 7.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 27%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 27%; calm-weather level 23%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Monday an average 27% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)27% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 AM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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