tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 35%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 9:27 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 AM EDT · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Monday to 35%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 35%; calm-weather level 31%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Monday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)35% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 8:00 AM EDT · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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