tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 12:00 PM MST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 3:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.