tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 7:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 6:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.