tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 30%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:56 PM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 4:00 PM MST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 23:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 30%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 30%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)30% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 8:00 PM MST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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