Phoenix departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

Updates oldest first

1. Initial Observed Sat Oct 17, 5:14 PM MST

   Phoenix departures running late: 53% left 15+ min late in the last hour

   Of 32 departures that took off between 4:14 PM and 5:14 PM MST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

   Evidence for this update

   Measurement window	4:14 PM–5:14 PM MST
   Sample	32 flights, 17 late (53%)
   Comparison	30% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour
   Median delay	19.0 min
   Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 5:14 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 5:14 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 17, 5:14 PM MST (2026-10-18 00:14 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
   Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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2. Escalation Observed Sat Oct 17, 5:42 PM MST

   Phoenix departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

   What changed: late share 53% → 71%

   Of 45 departures that took off between 4:42 PM and 5:42 PM MST, 32 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

   Evidence for this update

   Measurement window	4:42 PM–5:42 PM MST
   Sample	45 flights, 32 late (71%)
   Comparison	30% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour
   Median delay	31.0 min
   Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 5:42 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 5:42 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 17, 5:42 PM MST (2026-10-18 00:42 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
   Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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3. De-escalation Observed Sat Oct 17, 6:41 PM MST

   Phoenix departure delays ease: 56% late in the last hour, still above normal

   What changed: late share 71% → 56%

   Of 18 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM MST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

   Evidence for this update

   Measurement window	5:41 PM–6:41 PM MST
   Sample	18 flights, 10 late (56%)
   Comparison	36% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
   Median delay	25.0 min
   Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 6:41 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 6:41 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 17, 6:41 PM MST (2026-10-18 01:41 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
   Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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4. Escalation Observed Sat Oct 17, 8:23 PM MST

   Phoenix departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

   What changed: late share 56% → 71%

   Of 28 departures that took off between 7:23 PM and 8:23 PM MST, 20 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

   Evidence for this update

   Measurement window	7:23 PM–8:23 PM MST
   Sample	28 flights, 20 late (71%)
   Comparison	32% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour
   Median delay	29.0 min
   Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
   Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 8:23 PM MST
   Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 8:23 PM MST
   Published here	Sat Oct 17, 8:23 PM MST (2026-10-18 03:23 UTC)
   Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
   Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Closed Sun Oct 18, 3:10 AM MST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.