Model now puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 37%, close to its calm-weather level of 32%
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-30 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Oct 29, 11:00 PM PDT · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-30 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 33%
What changed: 44% → 33% since the 11:00 PM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-30 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 30, 3:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-30 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model now puts Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday at 37%, close to its calm-weather level of 32%
What changed: 33% → 37%; calm-weather level 32%
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target LAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-30 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 37% over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 30, 6:00 AM PDT · 1.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-30 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?