tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View LASFlights at LAS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 AM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 9:00 AM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.