tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model now puts Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 50%, close to its calm-weather level of 43%

Current state
Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View LASFlights at LAS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Las Vegas departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 12:00 AM PDT · 10.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 08:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Las Vegas departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 50%, close to its calm-weather level of 43%

    What changed: 48% → 50%; calm-weather level 43%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 6:00 AM PDT · 4.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?