tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 39%

Current state
Resolved at 8:56 AM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 2:00 AM MST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 09:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 38%

    What changed: 53% → 38% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 3:00 AM MST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 39%

    What changed: 38% → 45%; calm-weather level 39%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 8:00 AM MST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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