tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Phoenix departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved at 7:08 AM MST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Phoenix departures running late: 50% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 24 departures that took off between 8:19 AM and 9:19 AM MST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:19 AM–9:19 AM MST
    Sample24 flights, 12 late (50%)
    Comparison12% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour
    Median delay15.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 16:19 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    Phoenix departure delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 50% → 68%

    Of 22 departures that took off between 8:48 AM and 9:48 AM MST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window8:48 AM–9:48 AM MST
    Sample22 flights, 15 late (68%)
    Comparison16% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour
    Median delay19.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 16:48 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Recovery Observed

    Phoenix departures back near normal: 12% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 100% at worst → 12% now

    Of 16 departures that took off between 6:08 AM and 7:08 AM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window6:08 AM–7:08 AM MST
    Sample16 flights, 2 late (12%)
    Comparison5% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour
    Median delay-1.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 14:08 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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